The Altcoin "Supercycle": Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Fed's Balance Sheet
Okay, so the Fed's "quantitative tightening" (QT) ended December 1st. Big whoop. We're supposed to believe this is the starting gun for some altcoin "supercycle"? Give me a break.
"Crypto Analysis" or Just Voodoo Economics?
Decoding the Crypto Tea Leaves
These "analysts" are pulling patterns out of thin air. Matthew Hyland says altcoins historically outperform Bitcoin when the Fed isn't tightening. Okay, cool story bro. He points to 2014-2017 and 2019-2022 as examples. Anyone remember what *else* was happening during those periods? Massive speculation, ICO mania, and a whole lot of dumb money flooding the market. Correlation ain't causation, people.
And this "OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio"...it's just a fancy way of saying people are gambling on shitcoins when they're feeling euphoric. It's like saying ice cream sales predict shark attacks.
Sponsored content? Seriously? I'm supposed to trust an analysis that's being propped up by crypto exchanges trying to pump their bags? Nah.
"Supercycle"? More Like Super-Delayed...
The "Delayed Reaction" Cop-Out
Ah, but here's the kicker. Even *they* admit the impact might be delayed. Benjamin Cowen says it could take until early 2026 to see the balance sheet expansion. So, basically, "trust us, this supercycle is coming... eventually."
It reminds me of that time I tried to predict the housing market crash. Missed it by, oh, about five years. These guys are just throwing darts at a board and hoping something sticks.
And while were at it, can we stop with the "Bitcoin dominance" narrative? It's dropped from 65% to 59%? So what? That's like bragging about winning a pie-eating contest against a guy who's already full.
I'm starting to think this whole crypto thing is one giant pump-and-dump scheme...
Actually, wait, maybe it is just me. Maybe I'm too cynical. Maybe there really *is* a supercycle on the horizon, powered by the magical forces of the Fed's balance sheet. But if it is, I'm not holding my breath.
Altcoin "Season": Just Another Mirage?
The 0.25 Mirage
This 0.25 level on the ALT/BTC pair. Supposedly a "key marker." More like a random number some chart reader pulled out of his ass. Technical analysis is astrology for bros who think they're smart.
They're always saying, "Capital often rotates into alternative cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin dominance declines." Offcourse it does. But what if Bitcoin just keeps going up? What if this whole "altcoin season" is just a mirage, a desperate attempt to lure in more bagholders? As some analysts suggest, a
Multi-Year Altcoin Supercycle to Begin After Fed Ends QT?
So, What's the Real Story Here?
It's all noise. Just a bunch of talking heads trying to sound smart while shilling their favorite coins. The Fed's actions *might* influence the market, but acting like it's some kind of guaranteed profit machine is just delusional. I'm staying on the sidelines, thanks.
